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Case

Tribunal de commerce francophone de Bruxelles - Patrinvest v. SA Ageas

In September 2012, Patripart NV, a former shareholder of former Belgian bank Fortis, and its parent company, Patrinvest SCA, brought an action for damages against Fortis successor Ageas SA/NV before the Brussels Commercial Court based on alleged incomplete and/or misleading information in Fortis's prospectus relating to its September 2007 capital increase. On February 1, 2016, the court ruled that the Fortis prospectus issued by the Fortis SA/NV (Bel) – Fortis NV (Holl) holding corporation gave a correct view of the state of affairs and risks relating to Fortis, in particular with regard to the acquisition of ABN Amro, the subprime portfolio, and its solvency and liquidity.

An Analysis Group team, led by Managing Principals Lisa Pinheiro and Marc Van Audenrode and Principal Jimmy Royer, prepared a report assessing the economic and financial context at the time of the publication of the prospectus. The court agreed with the report, noting that “Fortis [lawyers] also point to a report by financial and economic analysts, Finitude and Analysis Group, who examined many relevant indicators that reveal that after exhibiting some concern during August of 2007, the market for highly rated subprime RMBS stabilized until the end of 2007.”

The court's decision could still be appealed.

Associated People

Lisa B. Pinheiro

Lisa B. Pinheiro

Managing Principal

Ms. Pinheiro has an extensive background in quantitative analysis and data science, with a particular focus on analyzing complex financial data and market behavior, which she has applied across practice areas including traditional and decentralized finance, intellectual property, biostatistics, and antitrust.

In finance, Ms. Pinheiro specializes in matters involving allegations of market manipulation, misleading communications, excessive fees, and complex securities litigation. She has been retained by the US Department of Justice, regulatory agencies, banking institutions, and market exchanges to consult, advise, and testify on matters involving allegations of spoofing and market manipulation, as well as the design and evaluation of corresponding detection approaches. Ms. Pinheiro currently serves on the independent Surveillance Advisory Committee of Kalshi, advising on exchange market integrity and fraud detection matters. Her work also includes the valuation of large portfolios of cryptocurrency assets and the analysis of the market microstructure of digital assets, reflecting both her long-standing experience in the field and early involvement, including Bitcoin mining, Ethereum validation, and certification as a Bitcoin Professional. She has authored expert reports and testified on questions relating to the modeling and calculation of price impact, royalties, and damages.

Beyond financial markets, Ms. Pinheiro applies similar statistical and economic frameworks to a broad range of litigation contexts. She has applied statistical modeling to various intellectual property cases, including patent disputes among smartphone manufacturers, copyright tariff setting for musical works, and patent infringement in the pharmaceutical industry. Her work integrates traditional economic analysis with advanced data science and AI techniques, from evaluating machine learning models in litigation to using generative AI to support the review of large datasets. Additionally, Ms. Pinheiro has worked extensively in antitrust matters, acting as an expert and supporting other experts in class certification and price-fixing matters across industries such as online search, computer chips, liquid-crystal display (LCD) panels, airline ticketing services, gaming, and grocery stores. Her substantial experience analyzing health care data includes clinical trial, registry, and insurance claims data for both litigation and research purposes.

Prior to joining Analysis Group, Ms. Pinheiro served as executive director of the finance group of CIRANO, where she conducted applied research projects in collaboration with private and public partners, including work on hedge funds, style analysis, credit and operational risk, and the development of integrated risk management tools for practical applications.

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Jimmy Royer

Jimmy Royer

Principal

Dr. Royer applies a broad range of quantitative tools to address client needs in data science, statistics, HEOR, finance, intellectual property, competition policy, and antitrust cases in the United States, Canada, and the EU. His recent work includes predicting the potential future onset of rare or undiagnosed conditions with machine learning models; predicting whether patents would be considered essential to technological standards if challenged in courts; valuing patents in the communications industry; evaluating damages related to product defects; analyzing investment guidelines in securities lending suits; addressing allegations of monopolization in major antitrust cases involving high tech firms; and supporting many academic experts on mutual fund market timing and excess fee cases. In addition, Dr. Royer has conducted extensive academic research and coauthored books and papers on topics such as using new AI advances in HEOR; predicting treatment resistance in tuberculosis, using machine learning algorithms in propensity score models; measuring the impact of ESO backdating on shareholders’ wealth; analyzing mutual fund pricing; analyzing antitrust limit pricing; valuing private investments for hospitals in Canada; determining the impact of hypertension therapies on mortality; and comparing unemployment compensation in different countries.

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Marc Van Audenrode

Marc Van Audenrode

Managing Principal

Dr. Van Audenrode is an expert in data analysis and econometrics, labor economics, antitrust and competition policy, and public economics. He has consulted to clients - including law firms and government agencies - in Canada, the US, and Europe. Dr. Van Audenrode’s work includes developing a methodology to value desktop software; he also developed expertise valuing goods as varied as restaurant franchises, executive stock options, or smartphone features. His recent work in public economics includes evaluating the economic rent from hydroelectricity to the Canadian economy and the value of logging rights on the ancestral territory of a Canadian First Nation. In the area of labor economics, his work has included filing an expert report assessing fair compensation for Quebec provincial judges and Quebec prosecutors and advising Quebec’s commission on pay equity. Dr. Van Audenrode has filed expert reports in courts in the US, Canada, Belgium, Germany, France, and the Netherlands, and has testified in Canada and the US. He recently filed a report with the Amsterdam Court of Appeal in support of the settlement reached between Ageas and claimant organizations in the Fortis case, the largest settlement ever reached through the Dutch Collective Settlement Act (WCAM). Dr. Van Audenrode’s scientific research and articles have been published in numerous peer-reviewed academic journals and trade journals. He is a coauthor of the book The Mutual Fund Industry: Competition and Investor Welfare, and is a frequent presenter at industry and academic conferences.

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